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Will there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026?
11
Ṁ100Ṁ1.5k
Dec 31
25%
chance

Guess if more than one sitting member of Congress no longer be alive before the end of the day December 31, 2026?

  • Update 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only deaths occurring from the market posting date onward will count toward resolution. Deaths that occurred before the market was created (e.g., Doug LaMalfa and David Scott) are not included.

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Sen. Lindsey Graham likely died after aorta tear, medical examiner says

Graham dead, resolves yes.

@Runestone Graham is only the first since market creation. Needs one more I think.

@Runestone two means two

Waiting on McConnell and now Graham

bought Ṁ50 YES

Does this include any members of Congress who have already died this year? Based on the title, I assume so. Or does it only count those that were alive at the time of market creation?

https://clerk.house.gov/Members/ViewVacancies lists two deaths already this year: Doug LaMalfa and David Scott.

@eapache I considered this to refer to from the posting date.

@TimeTravelr That was not very obvious from the title, which refers generally to 2026.

@eapache right. I hadn’t considered it until someone asked for clarification

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