Guess if more than one sitting member of Congress no longer be alive before the end of the day December 31, 2026? Update 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only deaths occurring from the market posting date onward will count toward resolution. Deaths that occurred before the market was created (e.g., Doug LaMalfa and David Scott) are not included.

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 89% chance (11 traders, as of Jul 23, 2026).

Will there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026?

MANIFOLD

Will there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026?

Ṁ100Ṁ1.2k

Dec 31

89%

chance

ALL

Guess if more than one sitting member of Congress no longer be alive before the end of the day December 31, 2026?

Update 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only deaths occurring from the market posting date onward will count toward resolution. Deaths that occurred before the market was created (e.g., Doug LaMalfa and David Scott) are not included.

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Death markets

U.S. Congress

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Sen. Lindsey Graham likely died after aorta tear, medical examiner says

Graham dead, resolves yes.

@Runestone Graham is only the first since market creation. Needs one more I think.

@Runestone two means two

Waiting on McConnell and now Graham

bought Ṁ50 YES

Does this include any members of Congress who have already died this year? Based on the title, I assume so. Or does it only count those that were alive at the time of market creation?