Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
26
Ṁ1kṀ2.2k
2028
9%
chance

Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024. So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.

YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border. Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 NO

Why would you invade your client state?

"land controlled by risks" in the description (typo)