China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
15
32
Ṁ957Ṁ360
2028
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Referring to land controlled by risks today in 2024. So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
YES requires credible sources, battles or clear l Chinese troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
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