China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
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Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024. So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border. Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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