Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
16
Ṁ200Ṁ3kresolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ109 | |
| 2 | Ṁ60 | |
| 3 | Ṁ40 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
Sort by:
The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).
People are also trading
Related questions
China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
10% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
16% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
25% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
2% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
13% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
3% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
5% chance
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
4% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
5% chance
Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
26% chance