Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
13
240Ṁ1604
2026
16%
chance

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

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