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MANIFOLD
Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
22
Ṁ240Ṁ4.6k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

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