Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
22
Ṁ240Ṁ4.6kresolved Jul 1
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Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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