Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
10
28
Ṁ360Ṁ300
2026
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
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