Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
10
28
300
2026
18%
chance

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

Get Ṁ200 play money