Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
19
1kแน9372026
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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