Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
47
Ṁ1kṀ20kresolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ161 | |
| 2 | Ṁ146 | |
| 3 | Ṁ145 | |
| 4 | Ṁ97 | |
| 5 | Ṁ54 |
People are also trading
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
56% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
10% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
23% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
13% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
5% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
17% chance
When will Russia have military encounter with Finland?
Russia attacks NATO by 2030?
44% chance
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
4% chance
China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
9% chance
Sort by:
@Ernie There would be troops, so that suggests YES, but no shots fired necessarily, so that would suggest NO
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
56% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
10% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
23% chance
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
13% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
5% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
17% chance
When will Russia have military encounter with Finland?
Russia attacks NATO by 2030?
44% chance
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
4% chance
China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
9% chance