Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Who will win the Israeli elections?
10
Ṁ520Ṁ508
resolved Dec 30
100%55%
Likud
7%Other
24%
Yesh Atid
14%
Blue and White
Resolves to the party of the Prime Minister following the next Israeli elections. Only the first result shall be selected if there are repeat answers.
Politics
US Politics
Israel
Israeli Politics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ54
2Ṁ44
3Ṁ19
4Ṁ18
5Ṁ16

People are also trading

Sort by:
@AndrewG https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/07/gantz-makes-play-israeli-premiership-party-merger Going up
If there is a deadlock and another election, it resolves as Yesh Atid.
@alwaysrinse Why?
@EnopoletusHarding Because Lapid will be PM after the next election.
@EnopoletusHarding If there is another election, he will be the PM until after *that* election.
@alwaysrinse Yeah but what if he is ousted due to scandal?
@EnopoletusHarding It's not 100% that a second election will result in this resolving to Lapid but it's certainly >>90%. Lapid has no scandals or anything like that on the horizon. Olmert took forever to oust with his scandal, and the Netanyahu trial is ongoing. He will be the PM going into this election, and if no one can form a government, he will be PM going into the next election, barring something weird.
@AndrewG This is way undervalued. I'd put 25% at another election (which means it will still be Lapid) and 15% for Lapid to win outright and form a government, 30% another rotation agreement of some sort or some compromise with a non-Likud, 30% Netanyahu wins outright. So I'm 35% on Metaculus for Netanyahu back by 2030 (see https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8054/netanyahu-pm-by-2030/ ), but in this election it's 30%. I'm 50% Yesh Atid (25+15+10 from rotation), 30% Bibi, 5% Non-Netanyahu Likud, 15% Other ...

People are also trading