Who will win the Israeli elections?

Politics•US Politics•Israel•Israeli Politics

Ṁ508

resolved Dec 30

ALL

55%

Likud

24%

Yesh Atid

14%

Blue and White

Resolves to the party of the Prime Minister following the next Israeli elections. Only the first result shall be selected if there are repeat answers.

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answered

Blue and White

bought Ṁ25

@AndrewG https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/07/gantz-makes-play-israeli-premiership-party-merger Going up

If there is a deadlock and another election, it resolves as Yesh Atid.

@alwaysrinse Why?

@EnopoletusHarding Because Lapid will be PM after the next election.

@EnopoletusHarding If there is another election, he will be the PM until after *that* election.

@alwaysrinse Yeah but what if he is ousted due to scandal?

@EnopoletusHarding It's not 100% that a second election will result in this resolving to Lapid but it's certainly >>90%. Lapid has no scandals or anything like that on the horizon. Olmert took forever to oust with his scandal, and the Netanyahu trial is ongoing. He will be the PM going into this election, and if no one can form a government, he will be PM going into the next election, barring something weird.

answered

Yesh Atid

bought Ṁ25

@AndrewG This is way undervalued. I'd put 25% at another election (which means it will still be Lapid) and 15% for Lapid to win outright and form a government, 30% another rotation agreement of some sort or some compromise with a non-Likud, 30% Netanyahu wins outright. So I'm 35% on Metaculus for Netanyahu back by 2030 (see https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8054/netanyahu-pm-by-2030/ ), but in this election it's 30%. I'm 50% Yesh Atid (25+15+10 from rotation), 30% Bibi, 5% Non-Netanyahu Likud, 15% Other ...