Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
Standard
67
Ṁ6347
2030
14%
chance

This market will resolve yes if the US imposes restrictions that are sufficient to prevent the training of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 before 2030.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:

Title seems misleadingly general given the description.

Note that this market will resolve no in the case that the market below resolves yes.

.

Would this include restrictions into the use of of AI-capable hardware in resolving to YES?

@PipFoweraker If it's used in training AIs above a certain level, yes.

How will this resolve if temporary restrictions are imposed, but the restrictions are ended or loosened before 2030?

@EvanTh wouldn't the first resolve YES have triggered payout?

@EvanTh They will have to last at least a year.

I anticipate restrictions, but not restrictions that will prevent the development of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 emerging before 2030.