Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
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1.8kṀ6652
2030
12%
chance

This market will resolve yes if the US imposes restrictions that are sufficient to prevent the training of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 before 2030.

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Title seems misleadingly general given the description.

Note that this market will resolve no in the case that the market below resolves yes.

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@Elspeth Wait, why? The title of this market means something very different to what you have in mind in that case. By the title any new regulation that comes out before Jan 1st 2030 should resolve to yes and the release of a new more powerful model before then should have nothing to do with resolving the market.

@DarklyMade Okay, I see your point. The intention was that if GPT-5 is released, then the US will have failed to impose sufficient restrictions. I should have been more precise in my market description.

Would this include restrictions into the use of of AI-capable hardware in resolving to YES?

@PipFoweraker If it's used in training AIs above a certain level, yes.

How will this resolve if temporary restrictions are imposed, but the restrictions are ended or loosened before 2030?

@EvanTh wouldn't the first resolve YES have triggered payout?

@EvanTh They will have to last at least a year.

possible arb here https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/contingent-on-ai-being-perceived-as

I anticipate restrictions, but not restrictions that will prevent the development of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 emerging before 2030.

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