Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
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This market will resolve yes if the US imposes restrictions that are sufficient to prevent the training of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 before 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Elspeth Wait, why? The title of this market means something very different to what you have in mind in that case. By the title any new regulation that comes out before Jan 1st 2030 should resolve to yes and the release of a new more powerful model before then should have nothing to do with resolving the market.
@DarklyMade Okay, I see your point. The intention was that if GPT-5 is released, then the US will have failed to impose sufficient restrictions. I should have been more precise in my market description.
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