Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?

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resolved Jan 1

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Resolves YES if the US passes legislation or executive orders with the intent of making it illegal for frontier AI companies to publish models with dangerous capabilities.

For the market to resolve YES, the regulations can be imperfect or flawed, but the spirit and goal of the regulations needs to be to mitigate AI risk.

Will be resolved in the spirit of the question at the time of creation.

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AI Safety

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I think this should resolve no, because the most relevant pieces of legislation, SB 53 and NY RAISE, do not have "the intent of making it illegal for frontier AI companies to publish models with dangerous capabilities."

@causal_agency Agreed.

Do you mean frontier AI companies from this Frontier Model Forum list i.e. these 4

Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI are launching the Frontier Model Forum, an industry body focused on ensuring safe and responsible development of frontier AI models.

or do you mean any company developing SOTA models?