Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
16
691
290
2026
52%
chance

Resolves YES if the US passes legislation or executive orders with the intent of making it illegal for frontier AI companies to publish models with dangerous capabilities.

For the market to resolve YES, the regulations can be imperfect or flawed, but the spirit and goal of the regulations needs to be to mitigate AI risk.

Will be resolved in the spirit of the question at the time of creation.

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Do you mean frontier AI companies from this Frontier Model Forum list i.e. these 4

Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI are launching the Frontier Model Forum, an industry body focused on ensuring safe and responsible development of frontier AI models.

or do you mean any company developing SOTA models?

predicts NO

@firstuserhere Either of these would count!

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