Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?
38
1kṀ3479
2031
15%
chance

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Military Operation: There must be an official, organized military operation explicitly aimed at slowing down the development of artificial intelligence.

2. Confirmation of Intent:

- The intent to slow down AI development must be explicitly stated by the military or governmental authorities responsible for the operation.

- This intent can be confirmed through official statements, government documents, or credible news reports.

3. Nature of the Operation:

- The operation must involve direct military actions, such as strikes, sabotage, or cyber-attacks targeting AI research facilities, data centers, or key infrastructure related to AI development.

- Operations solely involving espionage, intelligence gathering, or non-military sanctions do not qualify.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:

What if the operation is to slow down an adversary's AI development without intending to slow down AI development in general?

6mo

@HankyUSA It will qualify.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules