Trump at 1.1% here and 11% in the other market? Strong arbitrage opportunity

The rise of the ubermensch

Interesting implied probability combining this with other markets. I’m seeing Harris hovering around 33% for 2024 these last few days. So combining the markets, P(re-election) would be ~85%? I guess there’s a chance she loses to Trump in 2024 and they bring her back again in 2028, but that seems highly unlikely. And the chance of Harris not getting the 2024 nomination is almost inconsequential in markets here at this point.

I know these markets are not efficient enough to combine for implied odds in this way… still startling how little difference there is between the Harris 2024 and 2028 markets given that she is tracking for the 2024 nomination now.

Ugh never mind… brain blip. Harris hovering at ~43% for 2024 here, not 33. Implied odds for 2028 reelection of 65% still may be a touch high but not wildly off.

Kamala is finished after 2024...

2028 I'd going to be the most open of primaries. Dems have a weak bench filled with Governors that have destroyed thier states. Thier congressmen in the house and senate are just too radical. The GOP civil war continues with the establishment vs MAGA to establish for control.

For some reason, my money would be on Mark Robinson (Gov NC) He is charismatic and brilliant.

@DylanSlagh Mark Robinson (Gov NC) or Sarah Sanders (Gov AR)

He refused to endorse Biden this time around, citing that it caused "division". Hence I am purchasing a little bit of YES.

Currently favored 5:2 over Ted Cruz, according to this market.

Sure, but who's gonna come in second place?

There are lots of competent people out there but the intersection between them and people who want to & can get nominated by a party is basically zero

@JonathanRay Primaries are a pretty strong filter for being an economically illiterate demagogue, especially for democrats

@JonathanRay Hillary and Biden and Obama are all very economically moderate by Dem standards. I see an argument for Biden not being economically moderate in practice, but his brand was boring moderacy.

@MichaelWheatley They’re all really old (too old to run in 2028) and it seems like the younger rising stars in the party are much less economically moderate

@JonathanRay Should government should fund healthcare for illegal immigrants? All candidates raised their hand.

@mvdm roughly speaking — conditional on Trump not elected in 2024 (~50%), being in OK health and eligible (~40%), I think it’s >50% that he runs.

I think this might not be so crazy, considering that Paul Ryan was the VP Nominee! Made a more general market to see how people feel about Johnson's career trajectory:

thought this said 2024 and bet biden to 51% 💀

The actual winner will probably be added before the election. So 'Other' will resolve in 'NO', isn't it?

@HenkPoley Betting on YES on Other gives you YES shares on anyone subsequently added to the market. Betting NO likewise gives you free NO shares

@DylanSlagh Thanks. It's also quite impossible to cash out your bet before 2029, via the web UI, isn't it?

@HenkPoley If you bet in the opposite direction of what shares you own and buy an equal amount of shares in the opposite direction you “cash out” your bet. (The number of shares you have is the same as your potential payout on resolution)