Will dearMoon complete its mission and return to Earth before Artemis 2 does?
28
121
550
2026
7%
chance

dearMoon is scheduled to launch before Artemis 2, but either or both may see delays. Missions are considered complete when all surviving crew are returned to Earth.

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predicts NO

"when all surviving crew"

predicts YES

@Bolivian_Alpaca that is intended as "with all crew that have survived", not "with all crew safe and sound". If a micrometeorite takes out a crew member and the main drive, the mission is still ongoing, even if a rescue mission needs to be launched to save the remaining members. When they are returned to Earth, the mission is over.