Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, the total number of sovereign countries with far-right or radical-right chief executives (presidents, prime ministers, or head of government equivalents) in power exceeds the peak annual count recorded during the 2020s (2020–2029), according to an established academic database tracking comparative political ideology (such as the V-Dem Institute, The PopuList, or Global Populism Database). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Baseline & Threshold: The baseline peak count of far-right government leaders for the 2020s and the annual counts during the 2030s will be determined using published academic datasets measuring political leadership and party ideologies across UN member states.

• Data Consistency: If no single dataset continuously covers both decades under identical methodology, resolution may rely on consensus assessments published by major international democracy and political research institutes (such as V-Dem or Freedom House).

• Edge Cases: If dataset definitions or classifications undergo major structural changes, the market creator may edit or specify the active primary source to reflect the intended research standard.

Background

The global rise of far-right political parties and executive leaders has been tracked by several comparative political datasets, including the V-Dem Institute's party data, The PopuList, and the Global Populism Database. Political scientists generally identify far-right or radical-right leaders based on core ideological attributes, including nativism, authoritarianism, and populist anti-establishment rhetoric. Tracking these trends relies on expert-coded datasets that map executive appointments and election outcomes across democratic and semi-democratic regimes worldwide.