Resolution criteria

This market consists of two mutually exclusive outcomes regarding the emergence of a global far-right dictatorship before 2060. The options will resolve as follows:

• Yes, a global far-right dictatorship will emerge before 2060: Resolves to YES (and the "No" option to NO) if, at any point prior to January 1, 2060, a single global governing body, a unified world government, or a dominant hegemon/coalition exercising direct or highly binding political control over more than 50% of the world's population is established, and is characterized as both authoritarian (an autocracy or dictatorship) and far-right (e.g., ultranationalist, fascist, or radical right-wing populist) by a clear consensus of leading academic institutions, international relations journals, and democracy indexes (such as the V-Dem Institute or Freedom House).

• No, no such global regime will emerge before 2060: Resolves to YES (and the "Yes" option to NO) if the conditions for the "Yes" option are not met by January 1, 2060.

Notes on Resolution:

• A "global regime" requires a formalized structure of global governance or unprecedented global hegemony, not merely a high number of independent far-right national governments acting separately.

• If the ideological categorization or the degree of global control is disputed at the time of resolution, the market creator will resolve the market based on the consensus of peer-reviewed political science and historical literature.

Background

The concept of a global government—whether democratic or autocratic—has transitioned from science fiction to a subject of serious study in international relations, often discussed under the umbrella of "world federalism" or global hegemony. Concurrently, political scientists have documented a global wave of democratic backsliding and a rise in far-right populist and authoritarian movements over the early 21st century. This market addresses whether these two trends—centralized global governance and far-right authoritarianism—will converge into a singular global dictatorial regime before 2060.