Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2100, the world transitions into what can objectively be classified as a global far-right dictatorship regime. For this market to resolve to YES, the following two conditions must be met simultaneously:

1. Global Autocratic Dominance: According to the annual Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index or the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report, at least 75% of the world's population lives in countries classified as "Authoritarian Regimes" (EIU) or "Autocracies" (V-Dem, including both closed and electoral autocracies).

2. Far-Right Hegemony: At least three of the following five major global powers/blocs must simultaneously be ruled by governments classified as "far-right," "ultranationalist," "right-wing populist," or "illiberal right" by a consensus of reputable academic trackers (such as the V-Party Dataset) or mainstream political science consensus:

   • The United States

   • The European Union (or both Germany and France individually)

   • India

   • The Russian Federation

   • China (Note: A communist/Marxist-Leninist regime does not count as far-right. A far-right dictatorship in China would require a transition to an ultranationalist, non-communist right-wing military or civilian dictatorship.)

If these conditions are not simultaneously met at any point before January 1, 2100, this market will resolve to NO.

Substitutions and Edge Cases:

• If any of the listed indices (EIU, V-Dem) cease publication, the market creator will use comparable international democracy metrics (e.g., Freedom House's "Freedom in the World" report, classifying countries as "Not Free") as a fallback.

• In the event of ambiguity regarding whether a ruling party qualifies as "far-right" or "dictatorship," the market creator may resolve the market based on a community poll or a consensus of leading political science experts.

Background

The global political landscape has seen a documented decline in democratic standards over the early 21st century. As of 2026, the V-Dem Institute estimates that approximately 74% of the world's population lives under autocratic rule (either electoral or closed), marking a significant "third wave of autocratization". However, many of the world's largest autocracies (such as China) are ideologically left-wing or non-aligned rather than far-right. Political analysts frequently debate the potential for a "global democratic retreat" and whether nationalist, right-wing populist movements in established Western democracies could eventually coalesce into a coordinated, authoritarian global order.