Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050 (23:59:59 UTC), a unified global government or international regime exists and is broadly classified as far-right, or if an overwhelming majority of sovereign nations simultaneously operate under far-right governance.

Because terms like "global regime" and "far-right" are inherently subjective and lack a single universally recognized governing metric, resolution relies on the following standard:

1. Global Government: If a singular, supreme global governing body exercising sovereign control over the majority of the world's population is formally established, and credible consensus among mainstream international relations monitors and academic institutions (such as Freedom House, the V-Dem Institute, or the UN) classifies its governing ideology as far-right, fascist, or authoritarian ultranationalist.

2. Global Hegemony of Regimes: Alternatively, if established democratic and governance indices (e.g., V-Dem Democracy Report or Freedom House Freedom in the World) report that countries representing at least 75% of both the world's population and global GDP are governed by parties or leaders classified as far-right/ultranationalist autocracies.

If neither condition is met before January 1, 2050, this market resolves to NO. In the event of ambiguity or absence of consensus, the market may resolve via a community poll or by creator discretion based on reputable third-party academic assessments.

Background

The question addresses long-term geopolitical trajectories, specifically the convergence of global governance and political ideology.

• Comparative politics trackers like the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute and Freedom House monitor global trends in autocratization, populism, and democratic backsliding.

• A "global regime" historically refers either to institutional frameworks (like the United Nations or international regulatory bodies) or theoretical world-government constructs.

• While far-right and nationalist political movements have seen electoral gains in various regions in the 21st century, nationalism often opposes centralized global governance, creating an inherent tension with the concept of a unified "global" regime.