Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2060, the world transitions into what can objectively be classified as a global far-right dictatorship regime. For this market to resolve to YES, either of the following two scenarios must occur:

Scenario A: Global Autocratic Dominance & Far-Right Hegemony The following two conditions must be met simultaneously:

1. Autocratic Dominance: According to the annual Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index, the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report, or their analytical successors, at least 75% of the world's population lives in countries classified as "Authoritarian Regimes" (EIU) or "Autocracies" (V-Dem, including both closed and electoral autocracies).

2. Far-Right Hegemony: At least three of the following five major global powers/blocs must simultaneously be ruled by governments classified as "far-right," "ultranationalist," "right-wing populist," or "illiberal right" by a consensus of reputable academic trackers (such as the V-Party Dataset) or mainstream political science consensus:

   • The United States

   • The European Union (or both Germany and France individually)

   • India

   • The Russian Federation

   • China (Note: A communist or Marxist-Leninist regime does not qualify as "far-right." A far-right dictatorship in China would require a transition to an ultranationalist, non-communist right-wing military or civilian dictatorship).

Scenario B: Unified Global Regime A single sovereign global government is established and is widely classified by a consensus of international political science organizations as a far-right autocracy or dictatorship.

If neither scenario is met before January 1, 2060, the market resolves to NO.

Substitutions and Edge Cases:

• If the primary indices (EIU, V-Dem) cease publication, comparable international democracy metrics (such as Freedom House's "Freedom in the World" report, specifically the "Not Free" classification) will be used as a fallback.

• In the event of ambiguity regarding whether a ruling party qualifies as "far-right" or "dictatorship," the market creator will resolve the market based on a consensus of leading political science experts.

Background

Political scientists tracking global governance have noted a sustained contraction of democratic standards over the early 21st century. According to the V-Dem Institute's 2026 Democracy Report, nearly three-quarters (approximately 74%) of the world's population lives under some form of autocratic rule (either electoral or closed autocracies), marking a significant "third wave of autocratization". However, many of the world's largest autocracies (such as China) are ideologically left-wing or non-aligned rather than far-right. This market tracks whether contemporary autocratic expansion will merge with right-wing nationalism to establish a global-scale far-right dictatorial paradigm before 2060.