Resolution criteria

This market will resolve each option based on whether a single unified global regime classified as both far-right and authoritarian or totalitarian emerges before January 1, 2100 (00:00 UTC).

• Yes, a global far-right dictatorship regime will emerge before 2100: Resolves YES if a single sovereign political entity, world government, or overarching ruling authority exercises supreme political control over a majority of the world's population or sovereign states, and is widely categorized as a far-right dictatorship or totalitarian regime by political science consensus or major independent research institutions (e.g., the V-Dem Institute or Freedom House) before January 1, 2100. Otherwise resolves NO.

• No, no such global regime will emerge before 2100: Resolves YES if no qualifying global far-right dictatorship regime is established prior to January 1, 2100. Otherwise resolves NO.

This market may resolve early if a qualifying global regime is established and internationally recognized prior to 2100.

Background

In political science, far-right politics encompasses ideologies characterized by authoritarianism, ultranationalism, post-liberalism, and exclusionary social hierarchies. While national far-right and populist movements have held power or gained electoral influence across various democratic and non-democratic states, contemporary global governance remains decentralized among sovereign nation-states and international bodies such as the United Nations. The formation of a single global regime would represent a fundamental departure from the modern international state system.