Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, either of the following conditions is met:
Unified Global Government: A single, unified global government or governing body is officially established that exercises sovereign authority over at least 75% of the global population, and is widely classified by credible international organizations and political scientists as a "far-right dictatorship" or "closed autocracy."
Distributed Global Hegemony: Major global democracy tracking indexes—specifically the V-Dem Institute, Freedom House, or the Economist Intelligence Unit—classify more than 75% of both the world's population and sovereign states as living under "closed autocracies" or "authoritarian regimes", AND there is a broad consensus among academic political science organizations that these regimes are overwhelmingly characterized by far-right ideological orientation.
If neither condition is met by December 31, 2099, the market will resolve to NO.
The market creator will resolve this based on official data and reports from the listed institutions. If those organizations no longer exist or the outcome remains highly debated and ambiguous, the creator will use the prevailing consensus of international historians and political scientists, or may use a Manifold community poll to determine the outcome.
Background
Discussions around long-term global political trends often focus on democratic backsliding, autocratization, and the rise of nationalist or far-right movements. According to the V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report, a significant majority of the world's population currently lives in some form of autocracy (either electoral or closed). Speculation about the potential for a "global dictatorship" by 2100 generally falls into two categories: the consolidation of a single world state through technological or military hegemony, or a synchronized shift where the vast majority of independent nations individually transition to far-right authoritarian systems.
1,000