Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2040, far-right political parties achieve dominant political power across Europe, defined by meeting either of the following conditions:

1. Far-right parties—as classified by academic databases such as The PopuList—hold the head of government position (e.g., Prime Minister, Chancellor, or Executive President) in a majority (over 50%) of European Union member states simultaneously.

2. Far-right political groups hold an absolute majority (50%+1 of seats) in the European Parliament.

If neither condition is met before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to NO.

Note on ambiguity: Because "dominate" and "far-right" are broad terms, the creator may update these criteria to specify alternative thresholds, exact country lists, or designated political science databases. In the absence of creator clarification, official executive leadership rosters and classifications from The PopuList will serve as the source of truth.

Background

Data from The PopuList indicates that support for far-right parties in Europe grew to roughly 23–26% of the vote across national and European elections. While far-right and radical-right populist parties hold executive office or participate in governing coalitions in several nations—such as Italy and Hungary—mainstream political coalitions retain majorities in the European Parliament and in most national governments across the continent.