Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2101, and December 31, 2200, the world is characterized as a global far-right dictatorial regime. This condition is met if either of the following criteria is satisfied:
Unified World Regime: A single sovereign global government is established and is widely classified by a consensus of historians or international political science organizations as a far-right autocracy or dictatorship.
Hegemonic Autocratization: Over 75% of the global population resides in sovereign nations classified as autocracies (or equivalent non-democratic categories) where the ruling ideology is explicitly far-right, ultranationalist, or neo-fascist.
If neither condition is met by December 31, 2200, the market resolves to NO.
Resolution will be determined using retrospective historical consensus and prominent global governance databases, such as the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, Freedom House, or their direct analytical successors.
Background
Political scientists tracking global governance have noted a sustained contraction of democratic norms. According to the Freedom House 2026 report, global freedom has declined for 20 consecutive years. Concurrently, the V-Dem Institute's 2026 Democracy Report (titled "Unraveling the Democratic Era?") estimated that nearly three-quarters of the global population lives under some form of autocratic rule. This market addresses whether the contemporary "third wave of autocratization" will culminate in a consolidated, global-scale far-right dictatorial paradigm during the 22nd century.
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