Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, major global democracy tracking organizations establish that a majority of the world's population lives under far-right autocratic regimes.

Specifically, this requires meeting at least one of the following conditions:

• V-Dem Dataset: The V-Dem Institute (or its official academic successor) classifies more than 50% of the world’s population as living in "Closed Autocracies" or "Electoral Autocracies," with the ruling parties of those nations collectively scoring as "far-right," "nationalist," or "strongly illiberal" on the V-Party dataset's illiberalism and ideology metrics.

• Freedom House: Freedom House (or its official successor) classifies more than 50% of the global population as living in countries designated as "Not Free," and explicitly attributes this dominance to right-wing nationalist or far-right authoritarian governance.

• Academic Consensus: A clear consensus among major international political science databases (such as V-Dem, Freedom House, and the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index) reports that the global political system has transitioned into a dominant era of far-right autocracy.

If these conditions are not met by December 31, 2099, the market will resolve to NO.

Given the long-term horizon of this market, if the specified organizations cease to exist or change their methodology, the resolving authority (the market creator or platform editors) will use the closest equivalent academic databases tracking global governance and political ideologies to resolve this market in accordance with the spirit of the question.

Background

The V-Dem Institute's 2026 Democracy Report highlights a continuous global trend toward "autocratization," noting that approximately 74% of the world's population lives under some form of autocratic rule (either closed or electoral autocracies). This shift has been increasingly driven by nationalist, anti-liberal, and far-right parties gaining traction or seizing control in both developing nations and established Western democracies.

Similarly, Freedom House's 2026 report recorded the 20th consecutive year of global democratic decline. Only 21% of the world's population was classified as living in "Free" countries, down from 46% two decades prior. This market asks whether this ongoing democratic backsliding will result in a global system dominated by far-right dictatorships before the year 2100.

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