Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, the world falls under the control of a global far-right dictatorship. To resolve YES, all of the following conditions must be met:

1. Global Scale: A single unified world government, or a dominant hegemon/coalition of regimes, must exercise sovereign control over at least 80% of the global human population.

2. Dictatorship/Autocracy: The governing entity or dominant coalition must be a non-democratic autocracy or dictatorship, characterized by a lack of free and fair elections, severely restricted civil liberties, and highly concentrated executive power. This status will be evaluated using major global political science databases of the era, historically analogous to the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute or Freedom House.

3. Far-Right Ideology: The regime or coalition’s ruling ideology must be explicitly far-right, characterized by ultra-nationalism, strict social stratification, fascism, or systemic exclusionary policies based on national, ethnic, or social identity.

If by January 1, 2100, no such global regime has been established, or if a global government exists but is democratic or does not meet the "far-right" classification, the market will resolve to NO.

In the event that humanity becomes extinct or global civilization collapses to the point where tracking institutions and nation-states no longer exist before 2100, the market will resolve to NO (unless a global far-right dictatorship was established prior to the collapse).

Background

According to research from the V-Dem Institute, a significant portion of the global population currently lives in some form of autocracy (e.g., closed or electoral autocracies). While contemporary political science focuses primarily on medium-term democratic backsliding and the rise of right-wing populism, this long-term forecasting market projects these geopolitical trends over a multi-decade horizon.

Speculation about a potential "global dictatorship" by 2100 generally explores two paths:

1. Technological/Military Hegemony: The consolidation of a single world state or dominant empire leveraging advanced AI surveillance, centralized digital control, and military hegemony.

2. Synchronized Autocratization: A coordinated global shift where the vast majority of independent sovereign nations individually transition to far-right authoritarian systems, forming a dominant global coalition.