Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2400, the world falls under the control of a global far-right dictatorship.
To qualify, the following conditions must be met:
Global Scale: A single unified world government, or a dominant hegemon/coalition of regimes, must exercise sovereign control over at least 80% of the global human population.
Dictatorship/Autocracy: The governing entity must be a non-democratic autocracy or dictatorship, characterized by a lack of free and fair elections, severely restricted civil liberties, and concentrated executive power. This will be determined by the consensus of leading political science databases of the era (historically analogous to the V-Dem Institute or Freedom House).
Far-Right Ideology: The regime's ruling ideology must be explicitly far-right, characterized by ultra-nationalism, strict social stratification, fascism, or systemic exclusionary policies based on national, ethnic, or social identity.
If by January 1, 2400, no such global regime has been established, or if a global government exists but is democratic or does not meet the "far-right" classification, this market resolves to NO.
In the event that humanity becomes extinct or global civilization collapses to the point where tracking institutions and nation-states no longer exist before 2400, the market will resolve to NO unless a global far-right dictatorship was established prior to the collapse.
Background
This market addresses long-term geopolitical forecasting regarding the trajectory of global governance. While contemporary political science focuses on medium-term democratic backsliding and the rise of right-wing authoritarianism, this market projects those trends over a multi-century horizon. Academic projects like the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) institute provide historical frameworks for classifying regimes into closed autocracies, electoral autocracies, electoral democracies, and liberal democracies, which serve as the conceptual basis for this market's resolution.
1,000