Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, any of the following events occur and are verified by credible, mainstream sources:
V-Dem Institute Population Metric: The annual Democracy Report published by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute reports that 95% or more of the global population lives under autocracies (combining "closed autocracies" and "electoral autocracies" under the Regimes of the World typology).
Freedom House Metric: The annual Freedom in the World report by Freedom House classifies all five permanent members of the UN Security Council (United States, United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia) as "Not Free" in the same reporting year.
Global Autocracy: A single, unified global government is officially established and exercises sovereign authority over at least 90% of the world's population, and is widely classified as an autocracy or dictatorship by a consensus of international political science sources.
If none of these conditions are met by December 31, 2049, the market will resolve to NO.
If the V-Dem Institute or Freedom House cease publishing during this period, equivalent metrics from a widely recognized successor database (such as the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index) will be used. The market creator reserves the right to amend these specific criteria or thresholds prior to resolution to clarify any unforeseen edge cases.
Background
Global democracy has experienced a prolonged period of democratic backsliding. According to the V-Dem Democracy Report 2026, global democracy levels have fallen to their lowest point since the late 1970s, with approximately 74% of the world's population (6 billion people) living in autocracies at the end of 2025. Similarly, the Freedom House 2026 report recorded the 20th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. This market tracks whether these trends of autocratization will culminate in a near-total global transition to authoritarianism or the establishment of a global autocratic regime by 2050.
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