Resolution criteria

Because "stolen" is a highly subjective and politically charged term, this market will resolve based on a community poll of Manifold users.

The poll will be created by the market creator or a site moderator after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (no earlier than November 10, 2026, and no later than January 31, 2027).

• YES: If a simple majority (greater than 50%) of voters in the poll agree that Donald Trump and the GOP "stole" the 2026 midterm election.

• NO: If the poll does not reach a majority of "YES" votes, or if no poll is conducted by January 31, 2027.

The creator may also resolve the market to YES prior to the poll if there is an official, legally binding ruling from a U.S. federal court or state supreme court declaring that the certified outcome of a U.S. Senate race or the overall control of the U.S. House of Representatives was altered due to fraudulent, illegal, or unconstitutional actions coordinated by Donald Trump or the Republican National Committee (RNC).

Background

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. They will determine control of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives during the presidency of Donald Trump. In the lead-up to the election, both major parties are engaged in active legal battles over voting laws, mail-in voting procedures, and voter registration rolls. Because accusations of an election being "stolen" can range from legislative changes to illegal manipulation, this market utilizes a community poll to evaluate the consensus of the term's applicability.