Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Republican Party wins and/or retains a majority of seats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve to NO if the Democratic Party wins a majority of seats in either the House of Representatives, the Senate, or both.

Specific Resolution Rules:

• U.S. House of Representatives: A party is deemed to control the House if they win at least 218 of the 435 voting seats.

• U.S. Senate: A party is deemed to control the Senate if they secure at least 51 seats, or 50 seats if they hold the tie-breaking vote of the Vice President (the Republican Vice President holds the tie-breaker for the upcoming 120th Congress).

• Independents: Any Independent senators or representatives who formally caucus with a major party will count toward that party's total seat count for determining control.

• Seating: Control will be determined based on the official party makeup of the 120th U.S. Congress when it convenes on January 3, 2027. If recounts, legal challenges, or runoffs delay the final determination of a majority in either chamber, resolution will be paused until official winners are certified.

• Sources of Truth: Final seat counts will be verified via the official sites for the Office of the Clerk of the House and the U.S. Senate, with secondary verification from reputable national news outlets (e.g., AP News, Decision Desk HQ).

Background

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, during the second nonconsecutive term of President Donald Trump.

Going into the elections, Republicans hold unified control of Congress. In the Senate, the GOP holds a 53–45 majority (with two independents caucusing with Democrats). In the House, Republicans maintain a narrow 218–212 majority. Historically, the party of the sitting president faces strong headwinds during midterm cycles. In the 2026 cycle, all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election. Democrats are aiming to pick up the net seats required to flip the House, while the battle for the Senate hinges on key toss-up races across several states.