Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the percentage of self-identified Republicans in the national exit polls for the 2026 U.S. House elections is 34.0% or greater. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• Primary Source of Truth: The national exit poll dataset produced by Edison Research for the National Election Pool (NEP), as officially reported on major news outlets such as CNN's Exit Polls.

• Metric: Under the "Party Identification" category, the percentage of surveyed voters who identify as "Republican".

• Alternative Fallback: If Edison Research/NEP exit polls are unavailable or do not publish national party identification data by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve to YES if Republican candidates win at least 50.0% of the total national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, as certified and published by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

• Creator Note: The creator retains the right to adjust the specific percentage threshold prior to Election Day (November 3, 2026) to align with their preferred definition of "high turnout."

Background

Midterm voter turnout in the United States historically averages around 40% of the voting-eligible population (VEP), though the 2018 (49%) and 2022 (46%) cycles saw some of the highest participation rates in decades. Partisan turnout—how successfully each party motivates its base to show up—frequently decides midterm outcomes.

In the 2018 midterms, self-identified Republicans made up 33% of the national electorate in exit polls. By the 2024 presidential election, that share rose to 35%. For the 2026 midterms, Republican turnout will be heavily influenced by base enthusiasm, economic factors like inflation, and the historical trend of midterm backlash against the sitting presidential administration.