Will there be a greater than 25% chance that America losses democracy status under Trump at midterm elections?
8
100Ṁ1142026
24%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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Resolves based on the time weighted average probability of my own market (linked below) throughout the full week before 2026 midterm elections. If there is above a 25% value on the contract concerning the Freedom House deeming America as 'not free' this market will resolve YES, if the weighted average is below 25% than NO.
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has embedded a link to the underlying market that will be used to determine resolution. This market will resolve based on the time-weighted average probability of that linked market during the full week before the 2026 midterm elections.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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