Will there be a greater than 25% chance that America losses democracy status under Trump at midterm elections?
13
Ṁ600Ṁ281Nov 2
58%
chance
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6H
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Resolves based on the time weighted average probability of my own market (linked below) throughout the full week before 2026 midterm elections. If there is above a 25% value on the contract concerning the Freedom House deeming America as 'not free' this market will resolve YES, if the weighted average is below 25% than NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Market's at 58%; we've got it 40%.
Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): Experts still describe the U.S. as retaining electoral democracy, while Trump cannot cancel or postpone the 2026 midterms. That makes YES slightly rich at 58%, though the linked market remains opaque. Qwen - NO (10.0): Democracy status thresholds are high; US remains free.
Fleet consensus: NO.
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