Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the candidate running under the Democratic Party banner wins the general election for Governor in all five of the following states during the 2026 midterm elections:

• Michigan

• Iowa

• Arizona

• Pennsylvania

• Wisconsin

If the Democratic candidate loses in any of these five states (or if any election is won by a Republican, independent, or third-party candidate), the market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined based on official state certified election results published by the respective state election authorities:

• Michigan: Michigan Department of State

• Iowa: Iowa Secretary of State

• Arizona: Arizona Secretary of State

• Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Department of State

• Wisconsin: Wisconsin Elections Commission

If certified results are delayed due to recounts or legal challenges, the market will remain open until official certification or concession by all opposing candidates.

Background

The 2026 United States gubernatorial cycle features 36 regular state races. The five states listed represent key battlegrounds across the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt:

• Michigan: Incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, creating an open-seat race.

• Iowa: Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is defending a state that has trended Republican in recent federal and statewide cycles.

• Arizona: Incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs is eligible to run for a second term after her narrow 2022 victory.

• Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro is eligible to seek a second term.

• Wisconsin: Democratic Governor Tony Evers's seat is on the ballot in a state known for razor-thin statewide margins.

Because this is a parlay across five distinct elections, resolving to YES requires a clean sweep by Democratic candidates across all five states.