Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election.

• This market resolves to NO if any other candidate (including the Republican nominee, third-party candidates, or write-ins) wins.

• Resolution will be based on the official certified election results published by the Iowa Secretary of State.

• If official certification is delayed or legally contested, the market may resolve based on a consensus of major national news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, NBC News, CNN) once a projected winner is widely acknowledged.

• If the election is postponed past 2026, the market will resolve based on the next completed election held to determine the successor to the current term.

Background

The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is not running for re-election, making this an open-seat race.

The Democratic nominee is State Auditor Rob Sand, and the Republican nominee is businessman Zach Lahn. While Iowa has voted consistently for Republican gubernatorial candidates in recent cycles, early polling and Sand's statewide profile as a sitting Democratic officeholder have made the race highly competitive.