Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party secures a majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Resolution will be determined by the official certification of results by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives and reports from authoritative news outlets such as the Associated Press. If the control of the House remains unclear due to contested results, legal challenges, or a split that prevents a majority, the market will resolve based on which party is recognized as the majority in the opening session of the 120th Congress.

Background

The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will determine the composition of the 120th Congress. As midterms historically serve as a referendum on the incumbent administration, they are frequently characterized by shifts in legislative control. All 435 seats in the House are up for election every two years. Factors influencing the outcome include redistricting, incumbent performance, national economic conditions, and the popularity of the president at the time of the election.

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