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MANIFOLD
Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more?
1
Ṁ1kṀ2.5k
Nov 3
36%
chance

Resolves yes if democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election and their winning margin is 5.000% or higher.

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US Politics
Politics
Elections
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
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opened a Ṁ1,489 YES at 35% order

Big limit order at 35%. Note that 35% is the official ground truth probability that democrats win by 4.00% or more; so for 5.00% or more the ground truth probability should be around 30%. You have a positive EV bet by filling my limit order.

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