Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections.

Each answer option will resolve independently as follows:

• "Yes, Democrats will win back the House": Resolves YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 seats (or a majority of the seats contested) in the 2026 U.S. House elections, thereby taking majority control of the chamber for the 120th Congress. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

• "No, Republicans will retain control of the House": Resolves YES if the Republican Party retains at least 218 seats (or a working majority) following the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Resolution will be verified once official election results are certified by state authorities or projected by standard consensus media decision desks (such as the Associated Press). If party control hinges on vacancies, independents, or coalition agreements, the majority will be determined by which party formally elects the Speaker of the House at the convening of the 120th Congress in January 2027.

Background

• All 435 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election on November 3, 2026.

• In modern U.S. political history, the party holding the presidency typically suffers net losses in the House of Representatives during midterm elections, though the margin and outcome depend heavily on presidential approval, economic conditions, and redistricting dynamics.