Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Democratic Party fails to secure a majority in the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Specifically, this means the Democratic Party wins 217 or fewer seats of the 435 voting seats up for election.

This market will resolve to NO if the Democratic Party successfully wins a majority in the House of Representatives. Specifically, this means the Democratic Party wins 218 or more seats.

Details & Sources:

• Date of Election: November 3, 2026.

• Source of Truth: The final seat tally will be verified using official data from the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives once results are certified, or by consensus of major national news outlets (e.g., AP, NBC, CNN) if formal certification is delayed.

• Independent/Third-Party Caucus: Any independent representatives who officially caucus with the Democratic Party will not count toward the Democratic seat total unless they ran and won explicitly under the Democratic Party ballot line. The threshold is strictly based on seats won by candidates officially running as Democrats.

Background

Going into the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican Party holds a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives (the 119th Congress). Because Republicans currently control the chamber, a Democratic "loss" in this context is defined as their failure to flip the House and secure the 218 seats required for an outright majority. Historically, the party out of the White House tends to make gains during midterms, making the 2026 elections highly competitive as Democrats attempt to win back the chamber.