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MANIFOLD
Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]
44
Ṁ1kṀ10k
Nov 3
60%
chance
9

Resolves yes if the Democrats win more than 235 house seats in 2026.

  • Update 2026-09-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Independents (or other non-Democrats) who caucus, or plan to caucus, with the Democrats will count as Democrats for the seat total.

Politics
US Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
Elections
U.S. Congress
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sold Ṁ121 YES

Why was this trading at 20% lol

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 44% order

does an indepdent like bill hill in Alaska (who democrats are funding in their red to blue program) count as a democrat?

And Does win more than mean. 236 or more?

@Jack1 Anyone who caucuses, or plans to with the Democrats is a Dem.

opened a Ṁ25,000 YES at 42% order

Huge limit order up here! 50k

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 66% order

Limit orders up

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94% chance
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