Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party achieves a net gain of seats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections relative to their seat totals immediately prior to Election Day.

• This market resolves to NO if the Republican Party does not make a net gain of seats in both chambers (i.e., if they lose seats in either chamber or achieve a net gain of zero or fewer seats in either chamber).

• Official election outcomes and seat counts will be verified using certified election results as reported by the Associated Press once all relevant races are officially called or certified.

• If the market creator intends to use a specific seat threshold or alternative definition (such as maintaining majorities in both chambers), the criteria should be edited to reflect that exact definition prior to Election Day.

Background

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, cover all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats. Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterm elections, with the president's party losing an average of roughly 25 House seats during off-year congressional elections. While the term "wave election" lacks a single legal definition, political analysts typically use it to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant, nationwide seat gains across federal contests.