Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, as a result of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections (scheduled for November 3, 2026), the Democratic Party wins back control of the House of Representatives for the 120th Congress.

Specifically, YES will be the resolving outcome if:

• The Democratic Party wins a majority of at least 218 of the 435 voting seats.

• Or, if neither major party wins 218 seats due to independents or third-party representatives, the Democratic Party successfully organizes the chamber (e.g., by electing a Democrat as Speaker of the House at the start of the 120th Congress in January 2027).

The market will resolve to NO if the Republican Party (or any other non-Democratic coalition) retains or wins a majority of seats or successfully organizes the chamber.

Sources of Truth: This market will resolve based on the official, certified results compiled by the Clerk of the House of Representatives or respective state election authorities. In the event of pending recounts, runoffs, or legal challenges, the market may remain open until a clear majority of seats are officially decided or organizational control is established at the start of the 120th Congress. Consensus projections from major, reputable news outlets (such as the Associated Press) will be used to determine the result if official certification is delayed past January 2027.

Background

The 2026 midterm elections will take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, midway through President Donald Trump's second term. All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives are up for election.

Historically, the party of the sitting president tends to lose seats during midterm elections. Following the 2024 elections, Republicans secured a narrow 220-215 majority in the chamber. Because of this slim margin, the Democratic Party only needs a net gain of a few seats to win back control of the House.