Will by the end of 2022 the official consensus be that the COVID 19 pandemic was most likely result of a lab leak.
21
17
Ṁ1.4KṀ282
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve "YES" if the majority of main stream media reports on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 state it as most likely that it spread after a security breach in any laboratory.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ36 | |
| 2 | Ṁ32 | |
| 3 | Ṁ31 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
57% chance
(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?
2033
When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
44% chance
Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?
43% chance
When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
32% chance
Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
23% chance
Covid a lab leak?
51% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
34% chance