Resolves if there is widespread fears that they can't cover their liability, with a lot of withdrawals.
Examples of things that would cause a YES
Withdrawals are frozen
Public statement from employees about liquidity fears
In a poll of users, more than 30% fear manifold won't be able to honour withdrawals. I'll make polls to measure this at my discretion.
If none of these happen by market close I'll resolve NO.
At this stage I may still add possible yes criteria.
When withdrawals start I'll set the closing date.
What would people like to see or hear from us that would help lower this number?
(I don't think the probability is that meaningful rn with current # of traders and the specific criteria, but once the probability becomes more accurate this is something that will be very important for us).
What would people like to see or hear from us that would help lower this number?
Tell us you're keeping a reserve ratio that looks more like a bank's than a Silicon Valley startup's.
@robm For whatever reason, no one wanted to just simply state the new plan ("new currency, firewalling payout markets from play money markets") until they were totally ready to go. I think it would have been nice to the existing users to explain that some time in advance, but maybe it would have thrown the economy out of whack.
Yeah I also wish they had communicated the plans. Maybe they didn't want to repeat what happened with prize points, where they thought it was close to ready to go and then they had to totally change the plan.
I think the resolution criteria are still confusing. E.g. there are many reasons a withdrawal freeze could happen that aren't a bank run (e.g. payments processor downtime)
@Daniel_MC Thanks! I'm sure you will do just fine if you continue to monitor the situation.
I feel like there could be large demand to convert mana into prize points to be withdrawn as soon as the economy allows this option, and there could be a 'bank run' almost immediately. It will depend a lot on how many markets are allowed to pay out in prize points.
I started searching for markets like this and also made this one, which is related in spirit:
Will the total mana supply be higher or lower, 30 days after the first "prize points" are withdrawn to cash?