Resolves if there is widespread fears that they can't cover their liability, with a lot of withdrawals.
Examples of things that would cause a YES
Withdrawals are frozen
Public statement from employees about liquidity fears
In a poll of users, more than 30% fear manifold won't be able to honour withdrawals. I'll make polls to measure this at my discretion.
If none of these happen by market close I'll resolve NO.
At this stage I may still add possible yes criteria.
When withdrawals start I'll set the closing date.
Related questions
@Eliza I moved a sentence across from a similar market I made, but will have a think about something better and more objective that I can put in
@Daniel_MC Thanks! I'm sure you will do just fine if you continue to monitor the situation.
I feel like there could be large demand to convert mana into prize points to be withdrawn as soon as the economy allows this option, and there could be a 'bank run' almost immediately. It will depend a lot on how many markets are allowed to pay out in prize points.
I started searching for markets like this and also made this one, which is related in spirit:
/Eliza/will-the-total-mana-supply-be-highe