300M subsidy: Will there be a bank run on manifold (within 12 months of cash payouts starting)?
16
560Ṁ1744Sep 18
7%
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Resolves if there is widespread fears that they can't cover their liability, with a lot of withdrawals.
Examples of things that would cause a YES
Withdrawals are frozen
Public statement from employees about liquidity fears
In a poll of users, more than 30% fear manifold won't be able to honour withdrawals. I'll make polls to measure this at my discretion.
If none of these happen by market close I'll resolve NO.
At this stage I may still add possible yes criteria.
When withdrawals start I'll set the closing date.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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