This question aims to forecast the "mana supply" figure on the page linked below. I want to know if there will be more or less mana in the system 30 days after the first payout of prize points to mana.

https://manifold.markets/stats

Currently the page looks like this (note: the exact figure used for resolution will be different than what is shown here):

The current mana supply is 116,434,324 mana. For the purposes of this market, prize points and mana both count the same. The page currently identifies prize points as "spice", but it will be whatever currency is received from the resolution of markets, that can be directly converted to a cash payout. If the prize points balance said 100,000, then I would add 100,000 to the total at the bottom, for a grand total of 116,434,324.

Please note extra details about the calculation of this figure below.

Resolution

As soon as possible following the event of the first user reported to cash out prize points to mana ("first payout time"), users will report the status of the "Mana supply" table to this market. Note that this must be the "prize points" awarded with the Sweepstakes model and not some other source of Manifold users being paid. It is okay if there are multiple sources of "prize points", but we are specifically talking about whatever currency is received upon a market's resolution that allows conversion to real money.

A specific figure reported will be chosen as the initial mana supply. It may not be possible to figure out exactly what the mana supply was at the moment the first user cashes out, so whatever figure is chosen at the time will be official. A specific date/time for this market's resolution 30 days later will be chosen at the same time and the description will be updated with the initial mana supply and the resolution time.

As close as possible to the resolution time, the mana supply value will be observed by users and posted to this topic, this is the final mana supply. If the market's resolution appears likely to hinge upon very small differences in the value at the resolution time, a moderator who has not participated in the market will be asked in advance to gather the required data at the resolution time. If the stats/Mana supply page ceases to exist, I will make every effort to get this information from Manifold staff. (If Manifold staff refuse to give information within 30 days of asking, three uninvested moderators will be chosen to select the most appropriate resolution and if they are not in unanimous agreement, the market will resolve to the 3rd option.)

If an additional currency is introduced before the first payout time, we will adjust the criteria to suit the situation. If an additional currency is introduced after the first payout time, the calculation should remain as faithful as possible to the mana supply as described at the first payment time.

To resolve Higher: The final mana supply must be strictly higher than the initial mana supply.

To resolve Lower: The final mana supply must be exactly equal to, or lower than the initial mana supply.

To resolve No prize points will be withdrawn in 2024: Manifold never starts cash payouts, or they start them but are never able to honor them, etc. Resolves promptly on 1 January (Manifold time) as soon as no one withdrew money in 2024. There will be no early resolution if Manifold announces they are canceling the prize points to payout system. Resolves promptly on 1 January 2025 (Pacific time) if no payments have been made.

If for some reason I want to resolve this market N/A but am not allowed, I will resolve it 10/10/80, with the 80 on the No prize points will be withdrawn to cash in 2024 option.

Please ask questions in the comment section.

Details on calculation of mana supply:

I can't guess exactly what the mana supply table will look like in the future, so if it changes we will do extra accounting to figure out a fair figure. The sum of mana balances, spice balances, total mana invested in markets, and liquidity in AMMs is what we are going for. If new mechanics are introduced before the first cash payout, we will update the description in the spirit of the original question.

At this time, this query is used to calculate the mana supply. The following four accounts are excluded from the calculation:

user_id not in ('pyBueUg9y3hrDIUtrus5uAkPHCr1', 'IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2', 'tRZZ6ihugZQLXPf6aPRneGpWLmz1', 'ttl8PytdL4P9oD0fNneqvwgOZhy1')

If this changes in a material way, we will consult with Manifold staff to make sure the initial mana supply and final mana supply calculations are fair and adjust the market criteria if needed.

The spirit of the question is roughly "Will Manifold just pay out a bunch of money and shrivel up, or will users actually buy mana?". It's possible Manifold continues printing mana to raise the supply, but my understanding is they intend to significantly reduce mana printing.