Will there be a bank run on manifold? | Manifold

Will there be a bank run on manifold?

6

200Ṁ390

resolved Apr 13

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolved

NO

Before 2025

Resolved

N/A

Before 2026

Resolved

N/A

Before 2027

Resolved

N/A

Before 2030

With the pivot manifold is going to have to maintain everyone's confidence that they can cover the liability of all the winnings people can withdrawal.

Resolves if there is widespread fears that they can't cover their liability, with a lot of withdrawals.

Examples of things that would cause a YES

Withdrawals are frozen
Public statement from employees about liquidity fears
In a poll of users, more than 30% fear manifold won't be able to honour withdrawals. I'll make polls to measure this at my discretion.

If none of these happen by market close I'll resolve NO.

At this stage I may still add possible yes criteria.

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reposted

Percentages are the wrong way around!

@Daniel_MC we shut down sweepstakes, so withdrawals are no longer possible

@ian good point ahah.

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