Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?
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2028
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A "bank run" meaning that many users become concerned they won't be able to withdraw their mana and rush to do so before other people do. It is not necessary that Manifold actually runs out of USD to fulfill charity donations.

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Should resolve yes thanks to the donations rush of may 2024

@Odoacre No, I specifically asked about scenarios like this a year ago and it doesn't count: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-bank-run-on-manifol#qOyzTKlpbWqKBES2Lu4T

Me: If manifold announces that charity donations will end at a future date, then I expect people will rush to donate mana before that date. However, I don't think that would qualify as a run because they aren't rushing to donate before other people do.

Isaac: Agreed

However, if Manifold announces something like "charity donations will end next month or when a predetermined withdrawal limit is hit, whichever comes first", and people are trying to get out before the limit is reached, that does count.

@jack the run on the bank was more about users panicking and selling out of long term positions before others could. This resulted in many large longterm markets (e.g. the LK-99 one) to have wobbles. Manifold had to intervene and put in the donation loan policy in place to prevent this from worsening. Still, since this facility was poorly communicated many users still sold at a loss in order to gather mana to donate.

@PatMyron The nature of a bank run is that people are rushing to withdraw their own money before others do, so they're inherently unpredictable.

predicts NO

@PatMyron I asked/commented on this earlier

If manifold announces that charity donations will end at a future date, then I expect people will rush to donate mana before that date. However, I don't think that would qualify as a run because they aren't rushing to donate before other people do.

This isn't exactly the same scenario, but it's not a bank run for the same reason - people have a set date, and as long as they believe Manifold will donate everything they want to donate before that date, there's no "rush to do so before other people do"

I do have a related question though, @IsaacKing :

After the changes, there may be competition for people to donate before others so that their donations count. Not sure if it's simply first come first served or what, but if we hypothesize that's how it works, and people start to donate more than 10k in a single month, then people would rush to donate before the donation cap is used up. This is a common thing we see in fundraisers and donation matches, but is not akin to a bank run at all. Does it meet your resolution criteria?

predicts YES

@jack

not akin to a bank run at all

Tell us you're holding NO shares without telling us you're holding NO shares 😉

@jack Hmm, good question. Why do you think it's not akin to a bank run?

And Pat, is the implication that you think it is akin to a bank run? If so, why?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing users racing each other to redeem their mana before they can't would obviously be akin to a bank run

predicts NO

Well, mostly I think bank run was the wrong analogy to use in the first place, because mana is not akin to a bank deposit.

Anyway, that's not really relevant, because I believe the decision should be made based on the definition "many users become concerned they won't be able to withdraw their mana and rush to do so before other people do"

I think if there's one month with high donations that causes some people to rush, that doesn't count, since they know that they can just donate next month.

If we start consistently hitting the ceiling, and people get into the habit of competing to donate first at the beginning of every month, I think that would probably count.

predicts YES

update: ~57M mana in uninvested account balances alone now (increasing by couple million per week)

@PatMyron Is it still increasing as fast as when you wrote this comment, or has it levelled off now that we've had 4% loans for a while? I imagine 4% loans greatly expanded balances, but this should reach equilibrium after a few months I would guess.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington ~60.2M mana in uninvested account balances now

@PatMyron Thanks! That doesn't sound like much of a slowdown.

predicts YES

Already approaching 50M mana in uninvested account balances alone, and I'd imagine there's even more invested in markets

I'm assuming this doesn't count?

@Yev Correct. Must be on Manifold itself, by turning mana into other items of value. (Doesn't have to be USD.)

If manifold announces that charity donations will end at a future date, then I expect people will rush to donate mana before that date. However, I don't think that would qualify as a run because they aren't rushing to donate before other people do.

@jack Agreed.

However, if Manifold announces something like "charity donations will end next month or when a predetermined withdrawal limit is hit, whichever comes first", and people are trying to get out before the limit is reached, that does count.

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