Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy?
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resolved Aug 1
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NO

Nate Silver thinks he should.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Resolves NO.

Scott Alexander lives in Pacific Time, there’s still 67 more minutes

this post in the next hour would be an excellent plot twist

Seems like a boring subject

Can we get a link where Nate says why he thinks that?

bought Ṁ200 YES

I think the recent SCOTUS decision made it 100% not a boring subject.

@Ppau there's a video of the fireside chat between Scott and Nate at Manifest. it was included there. you'll find it on the Manifold YouTube channel

Thank you!

bought Ṁ200 NO

NEH

I think he should!

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