Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy?
35
1kṀ12kresolved Aug 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Nate Silver thinks he should.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ386 | |
| 2 | Ṁ296 | |
| 3 | Ṁ277 | |
| 4 | Ṁ268 | |
| 5 | Ṁ210 |
People are also trading
Related questions
📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
77% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
14% chance
Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?
68% chance
Will @ScottAlexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2026?
38% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
10% chance
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
2% chance
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
5% chance
Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035?
64% chance
Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
4% chance