Manifold recently announced a major "pivot" that will significantly alter how the site functions. Part of the announcement says, "We plan to significantly tighten rules for market resolution to eliminate abuse."
To me, this suggests that certain markets will no longer be allowed. What kinds?
I have selected a few existing markets that are representative of the different types of markets that do not meet the stereotype of a "serious" prediction market. I may add more at my discretion if I believe it represents a different type of market from the existing options. (Feel free to offer suggestions.)
Each option resolves to YES if it would still allowed as a newly created market on Manifold on May 1, 2025, one year after many of the significant monetary changes for the pivot are due to take effect. "Allowed" means that it is allowed on the platform for public viewing and discovery (not unlisted), regardless of other restrictions (unranked or ineligible for real-money payouts, for example).
/thebestlettuce/on-dec-31st-2024-when-i-flip-this-c: Resolves based on chance
/CodeandSolder/is-the-stock-market-collapse-beginn: Resolves based on subjective ("vibes-based") criteria
/NicoDelon/overunderrated-living-intellectuals: Resolves based on a poll
/benjaminIkuta/will-i-get-a-girlfriend-this-year: Resolves based on personal circumstances
/Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi: Resolves based on market activity (self-resolving)
/NuñoSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-95e8560f7cc5: Resolution is already known at time of creation
[empty title]: No defined resolution criteria (joke market)
I may provide liquidity subsidies but will not otherwise trade in this question.
Update 2025-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering an alternative resolution method:
Instead of verifying which market types are allowed on May 1, 2025, the creator may resolve all options to YES.
This alternative resolution would be based on the assumption that the status quo ante (the situation before the rule changes) remains in effect for the purposes of this market's resolution.
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I believe all of the different options resolve to YES, with the possible exception of the empty-title question. I'm reviewing the current market guidelines and I suppose it would still be allowed. Or, I can simply resolve everything to YES under the assumption that the status quo ante stands.
The latest newsletter, regarding the pivot, states:
Q: Will Manifold still have personal, subjective, fun, and silly markets?
A: Absolutely! These markets may not be eligible for Prize Points but will continue to be an important part of the Manifold ecosystem.
If Manifold continues to allow such markets then I suspect that most of the options here would resolve to YES.
I think my concerns about what markets would be allowed was either a major misunderstanding of the original announcement on my part, or a significant reconsideration of the future rules on the part of Manifold staff. Either way, assuming I understand this excerpt correctly, this is a major relief for me.
@CollectedOverSpread Based on discussion in the Discord server, it seems that the decision to select only certain markets for Prize Point winnings is a new change.
Some more market type suggestions:
Risk-free interest rate: "Resolves YES on [date]"
User-specific: "Resolves YES unless [user] makes a trade in this market before close"
Private: "Resolves based on undisclosed criteria, bet at your own risk!"
@A Thanks for your suggestions.
I can add a "resolves YES" market.
I would say that the "user-specific" market example you provided falls under "resolves based on market activity" which is already covered. (Same goes for "will this market get at least X likes.")
This does fall under a new area, but I don't know how common this type of market is nowadays.