RESOLVES TO POLL

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This is an experiment. Hopefully it works. Here’s the concept. I want to know how overrated (or underrated) these intellectuals are (in general), but I also want to know what Manifold thinks of this. I will collect data through a poll. But first, the market seeks to predict how overrated (or underrated) Manifold thinks they are (not how Manifold over/underrates them).

Again: this will resolve to a poll. The market is asking you to bet on Manifold’s perception of over/underratedness, not to express your perception. If you think Manifold is biased towards certain figures, factor that in. If you want to express your opinion, you’ll get a chance to do that in the poll to come.

An intellectual being overrated will be reflected by a >50% probability; underrated by a <50% probability; properly rated by a 50% probability. In short: bet YES for overrated, NO for underrated.

Under/over/properly rated by whom? The actual rating is typically done amongst a more or less large group of people. An underrated person may deserve to be known beyond such a group. An overrated person tends to be more popular than they deserve. A person can be overrated by a niche audience if they are very highly rated by it but does not deserve to known more broadly. And so on.

An intellectual is any individual in any country contributing in any language to public discourse through essays, public lectures, interviews, op-eds, and other writing that is widely accessible (in the sense of being available to the wider public).

I reserve the right to ruthlessly disqualify submitted answers including but not limited to:

• fictional characters

• unknown, extremely niche intellectuals

• well-known people who have not made any meaningful contributions to public intellectual discourse

• dead people

I will also ruthlessly ban users who post needlessly disparaging comments. This is a calibration exercise, not venting one’s biases and quirks.

On January 3, 2024, I closed submissions, which established the list that will be used for the poll. At market close, I will create the poll with the list of answers. For each option, participants can rate them from 0-100 (underrated to overrated with properly rated as the neutral/50 point). I will later resolve this market according to the poll results (closest percentage). This is when you’ll know what Manifold thinks of these people.

POLL: https://forms.fillout.com/t/sWig7DLk8Pus

The prompt I will use in the poll is:

"Rate the following person as underrated, properly rated, or overrated, on a scale from 0 (totally underrated) to 100 (totally overrated), 50 being the midpoint for properly rated"