This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2023
151
825
1.5k
resolved Jul 7
Resolved
YES
This market resolves positively on the 1st of July, 2023. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
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These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Everyone else who knows the discount rate is higher obviously has much better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is obviously much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and easily profit more than enough to cover that interest. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually at least 60% APY from my experience

predicted YES

I'm such a good predictor. Nobody else predicted this outcome as good as me.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing This one was almost impossible to predict, I think you just got lucky è_é

predicted YES

I used the powers. Someone copy paste the script for me please

predicted YES

@NuñoSempere Please resolve this question.

predicted YES

This needs to be resolved already…

predicted YES

can resolve yes

@MarcusAbramovitch Technically it resolves NO because it didn't resolve positively on July 1.

@Mira Technically it says it resolves yes on the 1th of July. That doesn't imply that it resolves the inverse on any other day.

predicted NO

I'm loving my 10k cheap af NO shares

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Why? Do you think there's a 1% chance this resolves NO?

predicted NO

@jack "This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets" - by buying at 99, im testing people's willingness to hold large amounts of mana in a market which wont profit them thaat much at this point. If they sell, I sell my NOs, and profit. I'm not buying NO w.r.t the market's resolution but its predicted behavior by me - that many people will sell their YES shares temporarily before close

predicted NO

@jack does that make sense? Or am i just confusing myself here

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Yes, that's correct, that's a reasonable method.

@firstuserhere That primarily makes sense for people who have held for less than a few months, right? After that, the bulk of their funds have already been returned as loans.

predicted NO

@Jason yep! And also newcomers who might be influenced to buy a tiny bit of NO

@firstuserhere I think that might be profitable, but it requires you to be constantly checking the market. Not viable for most people

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr naw, limit orders exist.

If there is a 5% fee from each successful YES share upon resolution, how come it goes to 99% and not 95%?

@Irigi There isn't a fee, there used to be and it was removed.

predicted NO

@jack there used to be a fee? daaamn, there used to be a fee for commenting! also, love the section here about insider trading