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Wobbles

Apr 5

56%

chance

ALL

Self-explanitory, resolves at market close

UPDATE: !!

second update:

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Genzyis predicting NO at 52%

I have inside information. This is going to resolve to % on of . I'll be buying big just before the close.

Ais predicting NO at 56%

Well we're getting close to and yet still ! If this ends up resolving or some other shenanigans like I'm gonna be annoyed at !

Jim Haysis predicting NO at 56%

[This comment has been removed]

Genzyis predicting NO at 56%

@JimHays That was a confusing notification

Patrick Delaney

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Wobblesis predicting YES at 50%

firstuserhereis predicting NO at 50%

Trongis predicting YES at 61%

guys seriously what even is this market

Genzyis predicting NO at 61%

@8 ?

Ais predicting NO at 61%

@Gen Yeah I think is pretty clear.

Jim Haysbought Ṁ5 of NO

@A What is there ?

Ais predicting NO at 61%

@JimHays

Trongis predicting YES at 60%

Hm, interesting, the market close time has . I wonder what sort of implications this will hold for . I think it's a good idea to at least right now...

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 57%

I asked ChatGPT about this, but it didn't want to answer.

Jim Haysis predicting NO at 57%

Oh no! I think may have !

I was trying to but some of the and I !! Everyone please ! confinement until further notice. …

Kitkatbought Ṁ10 of NO

I think " " does not have to be misinterpreted as: " "

Jim Haysis predicting NO at 61%

@69 I'm not sure that was willfully misinterpreting the statement made about . Seems like they genuinely .

Trongis predicting YES at 61%

@JimHays Sorry about that, I forgot about the . I think it's probably because of the I ate for tomorrow.

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 62%

Relevant:

Asold Ṁ22 of YES

Not sure why this is so high -- I think this will be very likely NO because of

Wobblesbought Ṁ55 of YES

@A True, though one could argue it would probably

Ais predicting NO at 59%

@Wobbles Not if , right? Unless I'm misinterpreting the resolution criteria?

Wobblesis predicting YES at 59%

@A Welll that's not really what I meant. When I said " ", I think It's obviously implied I meant .

Abought Ṁ10 of NO

@Wobbles Okay -- in that case can you add to the description please?

Wobblesis predicting YES at 57%

@A Ok fine I will, but

Denis Baudouin

I don’t want to be impolite, but you are both vastly incorrect.
Using Bayesian reasoning, we have that P() = P()*P()/P()
So we can deduce

Jim Haysis predicting NO at 59%

@DenisBaudouin How do you come by your prior of being P()? That seems too . But perhaps you’ve observed different evidence in the past of than I have?

Denis Baudouin

I hoped that nobody ask because that’s a politically sensitive subject, but my prior is based on :

Jim Haysis predicting NO at 59%

@DenisBaudouin Ooh, I hadn’t been thinking about at all!

Trongbought Ṁ50 of YES

@DenisBaudouin Given that markets generally resolve to or , using Cromwell's rule, we can see that If P() = , then P() = , and if P() = , then P() = . It's one of the key rules in , but .