Apr 5
56%
chance

Self-explanitory, resolves at market close

UPDATE: !!

second update:

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Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 52%

I have inside information. This is going to resolve to % on of . I'll be buying big just before the close.

A avatar
Ais predicting NO at 56%

Well we're getting close to and yet still ! If this ends up resolving or some other shenanigans like I'm gonna be annoyed at !

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 56%

[This comment has been removed]

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 56%

@JimHays That was a confusing notification

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

Wobbles avatar
Wobblesis predicting YES at 50%

?

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting NO at 50%

8 avatar
Trongis predicting YES at 61%

guys seriously what even is this market

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 61%

@8 ?

.

A avatar
Ais predicting NO at 61%

@Gen Yeah I think is pretty clear.

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysbought Ṁ5 of NO

@A What is there ?

A avatar
Ais predicting NO at 61%
8 avatar
Trongis predicting YES at 60%

Hm, interesting, the market close time has . I wonder what sort of implications this will hold for . I think it's a good idea to at least right now...

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 57%

I asked ChatGPT about this, but it didn't want to answer.

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 57%

Oh no! I think may have !

I was trying to but some of the and I !! Everyone please ! confinement until further notice. …

69 avatar
Kitkatbought Ṁ10 of NO

I think " " does not have to be misinterpreted as: " "

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 61%

@69 I'm not sure that was willfully misinterpreting the statement made about . Seems like they genuinely .

8 avatar
Trongis predicting YES at 61%

@JimHays Sorry about that, I forgot about the . I think it's probably because of the I ate for tomorrow.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 62%

Relevant:

A avatar
Asold Ṁ22 of YES

Not sure why this is so high -- I think this will be very likely NO because of

Wobbles avatar
Wobblesbought Ṁ55 of YES

@A True, though one could argue it would probably

A avatar
Ais predicting NO at 59%

@Wobbles Not if , right? Unless I'm misinterpreting the resolution criteria?

Wobbles avatar
Wobblesis predicting YES at 59%

@A Welll that's not really what I meant. When I said " ", I think It's obviously implied I meant .

A avatar
Abought Ṁ10 of NO

@Wobbles Okay -- in that case can you add to the description please?

Wobbles avatar
Wobblesis predicting YES at 57%

@A Ok fine I will, but

DenisBaudouin avatar
Denis Baudouin

I don’t want to be impolite, but you are both vastly incorrect.
Using Bayesian reasoning, we have that P() = P()*P()/P()
So we can deduce

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 59%

@DenisBaudouin How do you come by your prior of being P()? That seems too . But perhaps you’ve observed different evidence in the past of than I have?

DenisBaudouin avatar
Denis Baudouin

I hoped that nobody ask because that’s a politically sensitive subject, but my prior is based on :

-

-

-

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 59%

@DenisBaudouin Ooh, I hadn’t been thinking about at all!

8 avatar
Trongbought Ṁ50 of YES

@DenisBaudouin Given that markets generally resolve to or , using Cromwell's rule, we can see that If P() = , then P() = , and if P() = , then P() = . It's one of the key rules in , but .

Lavander avatar
Lavanderis predicting NO at 58%

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 52%

Just saw that the groups are , , and .

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

I'm officially just wobbles now, do you guys think ?

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

I was wondering how you guys wanted me to resolve this, but then I thought .

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 50%

@DesTiny There was recently a good discussion about this on the Discord.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/938171760237477998/1082481519030976545

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 50%

!!

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

I had a question for traders of this market, ?

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 50%

@DesTiny Hmmm… hard to say, but I think , unless of course .

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

@JimHays But wouldn't that mean ?

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 50%

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

PatMyron avatar
Pat Myron

manifold dream generated with no prompt:

Cris avatar
Crisis predicting NO at 55%

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 52%

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

R2D2 avatar
R2D2

Eh? 😅

Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

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