Self-explanitory, resolves at market close
I have inside information. This is going to resolve to % on of . I'll be buying big just before the close.
Well we're getting close to and yet still ! If this ends up resolving or some other shenanigans like I'm gonna be annoyed at !
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guys seriously what even is this market
Hm, interesting, the market close time has . I wonder what sort of implications this will hold for . I think it's a good idea to at least right now...
Oh no! I think may have !
I was trying to but some of the and I !! Everyone please ! confinement until further notice. …
I think " " does not have to be misinterpreted as: " "
Not sure why this is so high -- I think this will be very likely NO because of
I don’t want to be impolite, but you are both vastly incorrect.
Using Bayesian reasoning, we have that P() = P()*P()/P()
So we can deduce
@DenisBaudouin How do you come by your prior of being P()? That seems too . But perhaps you’ve observed different evidence in the past of than I have?
I hoped that nobody ask because that’s a politically sensitive subject, but my prior is based on :
@DenisBaudouin Ooh, I hadn’t been thinking about at all!
@DenisBaudouin Given that markets generally resolve to or , using Cromwell's rule, we can see that If P() = , then P() = , and if P() = , then P() = . It's one of the key rules in , but .
I was wondering how you guys wanted me to resolve this, but then I thought .
@DesTiny There was recently a good discussion about this on the Discord.
I had a question for traders of this market, ?