Will I get a girlfriend this year?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Will I get a girlfriend this year?

My ancap friend thinks there's a 90% chance I get a girlfriend this year if I maintain my current location and level of effort, but I'm a bit more pessemistic. A year can go by quickly.

Previously: https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/just-installed-tinder-will-i-go-on

Feel free to ask questions.

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Well, this year is over. Follow my market for next year!

predicted NO

Making out with a drunk girl does not a girlfriend make.

I notice Bumble has a lifetime subscription. Good deal?

predicted NO

surely not, right

@AndrewG Why not? looks like the breakeven is less than a year.

Got a match on Bumble. We're so back.

@BenjaminIkuta Agreed to a date with her at a boba place in LA for 5pm today.

@BenjaminIkuta Oh man, she has a graduate degree from Columbia. So out of my league.

@BenjaminIkuta Met for tea. We had good conversation and exchanged contact info, but didn't do more than a brief hug hello and goodbye.

Oh wow, Bumble has a free language filter, cool.

I haven't gotten a single match since coming back to the US.

predicted NO

@BenjaminIkuta where in the US are you

@ShakedKoplewitz north of Los Angeles

predicted NO

@BenjaminIkuta yeah that's the bad coast for men

Should I try to think about other people's feelings more?

Does Tinder actually delete your data after three months? Seems unclear.

This is probably going to resolve NO, because I'm moving back to the US in a couple weeks, and then I won't be in my new permanent home until after I spend the holidays with my folks.

I'm pretty pessimistic at this point.

bought Ṁ20 YES from 21% to 22%
bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%

@BenjaminIkuta What are your filters on hinge? Have you had a lady friend look at your profile?

@JonathanRay Hinge isn't popular here. Lady friends aren't a good judge of photo quality.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%
predicted YES

@BenjaminIkuta What’s your location? I had a lady friend ghostwrite most of my profile and the first few messages, and it worked well. I think women have different priorities around photos. Compared to men they’re less interested in how hot you look and more interested in what it signals about you.

@JonathanRay Lviv. I use Photofeeler to rate photos.

predicted YES

@BenjaminIkuta Photofeeler is inadequate because its raters are not your target demographic and it rates each photo in isolation instead of the whole composition of various photos. You look handsome in your photos but you're always posing alone and the locations are terrible: a cramped convenience store, a farm, and what looks like a prison stairwell. I would suggest photos of you with friends doing interesting things & visiting interesting places. If you can get on the roof of someplace in lviv or visit a castle nearby that would be cool. And at least half of your photos should not be solo.

predicted YES

i suggest getting their number during the first date and texting them immediately after the first date to say it went well and that you would like to see her again. Also pull up askhole.io on your phone if you are struggling for interesting things to talk about.

@JonathanRay people here mostly use Telegram. Askhole is cool and interesting, but rather too unhinged for a first date.

@BenjaminIkuta All the girls I know use iMessage

@JonathanRay all of them? Wow.

predicted YES

@BenjaminIkuta Askhole is fine. Even if the questions are awkward you benefit from misattribution of arousal

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